SP-Farms and why they will stay profitable 3/3

Finaly the last part of this series. Now it is more about historic data, some basics and how it looked in 2016. In theory, you may add additional costs like broker-fees, but I decided to cut this part due to clearness.

The more expensive the PLEX, the less profitable the SP-farms – they will just become unprofitable!

This criticism is partly valid, as a not profitable SP-farm is still justifiable. Reason is that the chars which need a omega-status regardless of the profitability of SP-farms will still get cheaper – if I can run a cloaky camper for 500 millions instead of 1 billion, it makes sense to do it.

But all in all, 65% of all players still use only one account. Yes, this data is a bit outdated, but according to CCP_Quandt, they are relatively stable around 1,5 accounts per player, so I personaly have no reason to assume it changed drastically.

Now to the math:
The earnings of SP-farms are based on the different prices between injectors and extractors as well as the ratio between this difference and the price of PLEX. At the time I translate this post, we are talking about the following numbers:

PLEX: ~1.250.000.000 ISK
Extractors: ~290.000.000 ISK
Injectors: ~695.000.000 ISK
Delta: ~395.000.000 ISK

One character can fill 3,88 injectors per month.

To get break even under these circumstances, the profit of these 3,88 injectors need to match the price of one PLEX. Which brings us to the following equation:

y

Y is the amount of ISK the difference needs to match to break even.

x

X is the absolute difference between injector and extractor

resultat

“Gewinn” = profit, “Verlust” = loss – yes, I am indeed too lazy to make a new picture

Now we could say that there are 3 scenarios, which would imply a negative profit (aka “loss”):

a) PLEX rise
b) extractors rise
c) injectors fall

However, PLEX and extractors share the same foundation of their worth, as they are both able to be acquired by real money. So if PLEX rise, the extractors will do the same. At the first glimpe, this might be not optimal, as two negative factors in this equation follow a rising tendency.

So can we say, that it will sort itself soon? Will SP farming alts die out? Does this business make any sense at all?

Well, lets look at some actual numbers and put them into a shiny graph (damn excel, you are sexy):

Data from jita avg prices, the rest consists of calculations of fomulas which you can find above

All in all, since the introduction of extractors the profit of an SP-farm (including PLEX) we only saw 3 days of negative productivity and only 16 days of low profit of <100 million ISK. Indeed was the profit above 300 million in ~73% of the days in the last year (yes, the ratio even rose up from ~66% to ~73%):

<0 <100 Mio 100-200 Mio 200-300 Mio 300-400 Mio 400-500 Mio 500-600 Mio 600-700 Mio 700-800 Mio
3 (/) 12 (-4) 55 (-8) 26 (-14) 68 (+29) 79 (-5) 59 (-1) 55 (+3) 9 (/)

In the long run, I expected a negative trend to manifest itself in repsect of the profit, but I need to reverse this expectation. I think that it will settle around 350 million ISK in profit per character, even though the average even rose from 395 million to 408 million ISK in between the time I wrote the original post in german and this translation.

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